Sean Murphy

My selection is on New York plus the points over Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

Handicapping 101 dictates a Pacers victory here as they look to bounce back from that blowout defeat in Game 5 of this series. I simply feel the line is too high, however, noting that the Knicks 23-17 ATS when playing on two days' rest over the last three seasons including a 9-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. Depth-shy to be sure, the extra day off should certainly benefit the Knicks in this spot. While the knee-jerk reaction is often to fade a team off a big, blowout victory, New York is actually 20-10 ATS when coming off a win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons including a 7-5 ATS record this season. Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 8-9 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season and 6-12 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss by 30 points or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Take New York (8*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles over Cincinnati at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Dodgers dropped their second game in a row last night as they were blown out by the Reds in the opener of this series. I look for them to bounce back on Friday as James Paxton looks to continue his resurgence on the mound. Note that the Dodgers rank best in baseball in terms of team OPS and while they've sagged a bit lately, they still sit three spots above the ML average in terms of team FIP. The Reds on the other hand own the seventh-worst team OPS in the majors while sitting two positions south of the ML average in team FIP. While I don't like to make a habit of laying such steep prices, I do expect the Dodgers to get back in the win column here. Take Los Angeles.

My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 10 pm et on Friday.

The Stars let the Avalanche off the hook in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday, blowing a 2-1 late second period lead on their way to a 5-3 defeat on home ice. They'll look to regroup and close out Colorado on the road on Friday and I'm confident they'll do exactly that. Note that the Stars fall into an incredible situation here as they're a long-term 128-59 (+72.6 net games) when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a divisional opponent including 12-2 (+9.7 net games) over the last three seasons and 4-0 this season. Dallas also checks in an incredible 10-1 after giving up five goals or more in its previous game this season. Meanwhile, Colorado is just 7-7 (-5.0 net games) when coming off a win by two goals or more over a divisional foe this season. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Mystics saw their first game go 'over' the total thanks to a meaningless last second foul that resulted in two made Sabrina Ionescu free throws. I don't believe Washington is going to be a strong 'over' bet this season, not with an offense that figures to wind up ranking near the bottom of the league. Note that in its opener, Washington connected on just 31-of-78 field goal attempts. It is unlikely to approach 80 field goal attempts again as it faces a more methodical Connecticut squad on Friday. The Sun limited Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever to just 24-of-50 from the field in their season opener. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 65-56 with Connecticut coming off a game in which it scored 90 or more points, as is the case here, including a 15-12 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The Storm were stunned in their home opener against these same Lynx on Tuesday, dropping an 83-70 decision as 7.5-point favorites. The good news is, Seattle is a long-term 225-182 ATS when coming off an ATS defeat including 23-16 ATS in that situation over the last two-plus seasons. The Storm are also a long-term 42-34 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a long-term 46-49 ATS as a home underdog including 7-11 ATS over the last two-plus seasons. Take Seattle (10*).

My selection is on Boston over St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday.

The Red Sox dropped a 7-5 decision at home against the Rays last night. Meanwhile, St. Louis returns home following a seven-game road trip. I like Boston's chances of rebounding here as it hands the ball to Brayan Bello against veteran Kyle Gibson of the Cardinals. Note that Boston quietly sits five spots above the major league average in terms of team OPS and second in baseball in team FIP. It's a much different story for the Cards as they own the third-worst team OPS in the majors and sit three positions below the ML average in team FIP. Take Boston (8*).

My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 2:20 pm et on Friday.

The Paul Skenes effect has the Pirates favored as they look to take a second straight game from the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday. We'll instead back Chicago to rebound as it hands the ball to Kyle Hendricks. Note that the Cubs are holding their own both at the plate and on the mound, checking in ranked four spots north of the ML average in team OPS and five places above it in terms of team FIP. Only three teams in baseball own a worse team OPS than the Pirates while they sit in the bottom-third of the majors in team FIP. Take Chicago (8*).