ASA

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Under 132.5 Points - Abilene Christian vs Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season and totaled 130 and 134 points and this number is basically set right in the middle of those 2 performances. Neither team topped 1.04 PPP in either game and 2 of the 4 offensive data points were less than 1.00 PPP. We don’t expect that to change here in a do or die setting on a neutral site (unfamiliar court). Both defenses are high level ranking the top 100 nationally in efficiency while offensive they both rank outside the top 325 in eFG%. Neither team scores much from 3 (270th and 361st in 3’s made per game) and they simply don’t shoot well from deep when they do get looks (257th and 321st in 3 point FG%). The shot volume for each team should be low in this one as both create turnovers at a high level (which leads to wasted offensive possessions) and neither are good offensive rebounding teams (which limits 2nd chances). In their 2 meetings this season, both teams in both games had turnover rates of higher than 20% which is really poor. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the WAC and while ACU prefers a faster pace, the slower team usually gets their tempo so expect a lower possession game (67.5 average possessions in first 2 meetings). Seattle’s defense allows just 59 PPG in league play and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those opponents failing to reach 60 points. In ACU’s games vs the 3 slowest paced teams in the league (Seattle, Cal Baptist and Tarleton St) the total points scored were 130, 134, 119, 143, 123, and 114 points for an average of 127. Let’s go Under in this one.

ASA play on OVER 233 Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - These teams met in late February and produced 240 total points and OVER 237. In two meetings in January they produced 240 and 228 total points. The OVER is 5-1 the last six meetings. Scheduling favors an OVER wager here too as both teams tend to play in higher scoring games with 2-3 days rest. Combined they are 9-15-1 to the OVER in this scheduling situation. When it comes to playing within the Division, these two are a combined 15-9 OVER this season. In each teams last 10 games the offenses have been humming with the Warriors ranking 3rd in Offensive Net Rating, the Kings are 8th. These two teams rank 10th and 11th in EFG% so both are shooting the rock well in this 10-game stretch. The Warriors are going to have success from beyond the arc with the 13th best 3PT% going up against a Kings D that ranks 29th in opponents FG% defense. The Kings are going to score with volume (7th in field goal attempts this season) and good shooting (10th in FG%). There is some value in this number which is 4-points lower than the number set on these same two teams just a few weeks ago.

ASA play on Edmonton Oilers -140 at New Jersey Devils, 7:37 pm ET - We are not buying the Devils two recent wins, and they came against Columbus and Philadelphia who both sit below them in the standings. New Jersey now steps up to face a much better Edmonton team that is coming off a loss against Buffalo as a -180 road favorite. The Oilers have outshot their last four opponents by a combined 128/102 and two of those wins came against Montreal and Dallas. The Oilers are 9th in Goals p/game at 3.23 on the season, New Jersey is averaging 2.98. The Devils have a slight advantage defensively allowing 2.53 Goals p/game, the Oilers give up 2.94. Edmonton has the much better shots/shots allowed differential at +300 for the season compared to the Devils at +165. With two relatively even goaltenders, we like the Oilers offense in this one and the fact Edmonton is playing with revenge from a loss earlier this season to the Devils.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#754 ASA PLAY ON BYU +3.5 over ISU, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - This is a revenge game for ISU after losing at home to BYU on March 4th, however with their injury issues, we’re guessing the Cyclones are more focused on getting healthy for the NCAA tourney next week. Their 2 starting guards and primary ball handlers are both banged up right now. Keshon Gilbert played only 11 minutes yesterday in their win over Cincinnati and didn’t play at all in the 2nd half. He’s been in and out of the line up over the last few weeks with a leg injury. It was obvious he was on a limited minute basis yesterday and most likely will be again today. His running mate at guard Tamon Lipsey injured his groin late in their win vs Cincinnati, went to the locker room and did not come back. Even if those guys can play, you can bet they’ll be careful with their minutes as next week is much more meaningful. That being said, the Cougars won at ISU when the Clones had everyone available just over a week ago. BYU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 winning 8 straight and 12 of their last 14. Since late January this BYU team is rated as the 6th best in the country and 2nd best in the Big 12 behind only Houston (per Bart Torvik). They are one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 5th in eFG% and 12th in offensive efficiency. Since late January their offense ranks as the 3rd most efficient in the nation behind only Duke and Alabama. The Cougs shot decent but not great in their OT win @ Iowa State (44% from the field) but dominated the glass (+23) and if their 2 key defensive guards can’t play or are not 100%, BYU should be able to get plenty of open 3’s (35th best 3 point FG% in the nation). ISU had a very good season but they did have 6 losses away from home this year and they are taking on a rested and healthy BYU team. Not sure they should be laying points in this one with their health issues.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.