Frank Sawyer

At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) and the Denver Nuggets (520) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-28) has lost the last two games in this series after their 115-107 upset loss as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (63-38) has evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves need to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 61 games. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while the last two games finished Over the Total, the Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row Over the Total. Denver enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 13 contests by making 57.0% of their shots. They shot 53.7% of their shots in Game Three — but they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total after making 50.0% of their shots in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Northwest Division rival — and they have played 35 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) and the Denver Nuggets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-36) has lost the last two games of this series after their 121-89 loss on the road to the Pacers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (53-40) has won six of their last nine games while evening this best-of-seven series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks are a M*A*S*H unit right now with O.G. Anunoby now out indefinitely and enjoying Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and Bojan Bogdanovic in street clothes for this team. But if there is a silver lining to a loss by 32 points, it is that the starting five got benched and rested for this crucial fifth game. Returning home to a raucous Madison Square Garden, expect an inspired effort from Jalen Brunson and company. New York has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Knicks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing two games in a row on the road. New York only made 33.7% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. They also allowed the Pacers to make 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 35 contests. Games Three and Four finished Under the Total — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Indiana played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Knicks to 33.7% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last ten games by nailing 56.8% of their shots. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games after a point spread win. Indiana is dealing with their own injuries — most notably, Tyrese Haliburton has been slowed with back spasms and a right ankle. This might be the game he needs to exhale after leading his team to two victories at home. The Pacers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 210s. 

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.